Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 15 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Leader 26 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $102 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$101.86

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

0.4¢ → 0.4¢

-14% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$101.86

Total Shares23,413

Combined PnL+$0

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$32.64	$32.64	+$0	29% 2939-7182 (10121)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$31.1	$31.1	+$0	39% 10135-15757 (25892)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$23.19	$23.19	+$0	33% 6954-13982 (20936)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$6.6	$6.6	+$0	67% 27386-13744 (41130)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.29	$4.29	+$0	39% 1018-1574 (2592)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2.64	$2.64	+$0	38% 7126-11734 (18860)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.49	$0.49	+$0	17% 1307-6523 (7830)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.3	$0.3	+$0	37% 4005-6748 (10753)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.29	$0.29	+$0	29% 472-1155 (1627)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.18	$0.18	+$0	20% 340-1332 (1672)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.12	$0.12	+$0	26% 554-1607 (2161)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	47% 3792-4260 (8052)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	43% 10588-14062 (24650)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	39% 5744-9126 (14870)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	18% 244-1130 (1374)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.64

Value

$32.64

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

2939-7182 (10121)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.1

Value

$31.1

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

10135-15757 (25892)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.19

Value

$23.19

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

6954-13982 (20936)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

27386-13744 (41130)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.29

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1018-1574 (2592)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

7126-11734 (18860)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.49

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

1307-6523 (7830)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

4005-6748 (10753)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

472-1155 (1627)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

340-1332 (1672)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

554-1607 (2161)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

3792-4260 (8052)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

10588-14062 (24650)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

5744-9126 (14870)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

244-1130 (1374)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6836.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

6936.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.