Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Leader 20 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $101 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
10
Yes 100%
$100.92
$0
0.5¢ → 0.4¢
-23% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $32.64 | $32.64 | +$0 | 29% 2940-7182 (10122) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $31.1 | $31.1 | +$0 | 39% 10143-15757 (25900) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $23.19 | $23.19 | +$0 | 33% 6992-13982 (20974) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $6.6 | $6.6 | +$0 | 67% 27459-13813 (41272) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $4.29 | $4.29 | +$0 | 39% 1018-1574 (2592) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2.64 | $2.64 | +$0 | 38% 7139-11760 (18899) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.29 | $0.29 | +$0 | 29% 472-1156 (1628) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.18 | $0.18 | +$0 | 54% 12396-10610 (23006) |
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 39% 5747-9157 (14904) |
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 18% 244-1130 (1374) |
Invested
$32.64
Value
$32.64
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
2940-7182 (10122)
Invested
$31.1
Value
$31.1
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
10143-15757 (25900)
Invested
$23.19
Value
$23.19
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
6992-13982 (20974)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
27459-13813 (41272)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$4.29
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1018-1574 (2592)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
7139-11760 (18899)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.29
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
472-1156 (1628)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.18
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
12396-10610 (23006)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
5747-9157 (14904)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
244-1130 (1374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.