Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Leader 2 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $99 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$98.69

Combined PnL

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$98.69

Total Shares20,777

Combined PnL+$0

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$32.64	$32.64	+$0	29% 2941-7182 (10123)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$31.1	$31.1	+$0	39% 10155-15758 (25913)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$23.19	$23.19	+$0	33% 6995-13982 (20977)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$6.6	$6.6	+$0	67% 27501-13833 (41334)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.29	$4.29	+$0	39% 1021-1574 (2595)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.32	$0.32	+$0	26% 580-1646 (2226)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.29	$0.29	+$0	30% 489-1160 (1649)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.27	$0.27	+$0	54% 12474-10723 (23197)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	18% 245-1134 (1379)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.64

Value

$32.64

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

2941-7182 (10123)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.1

Value

$31.1

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

10155-15758 (25913)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.19

Value

$23.19

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

6995-13982 (20977)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

27501-13833 (41334)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.29

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1021-1574 (2595)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

580-1646 (2226)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

489-1160 (1649)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

12474-10723 (23197)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

245-1134 (1379)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6836.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

6936.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.