Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Le Mans win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $6 held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.79

Combined PnL

-$512.86

Smart Money Entry

4.5¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.79

Total Shares11,583

Combined PnL-$512.86

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forgotmydinnerCTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$136.36	$1.5	-$134.86	19% 49-212 (261)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$108.77	$1.2	-$107.57	79% 10607-2754 (13361)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$95.75	$1.05	-$94.7	55% 5874-4767 (10641)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$82.94	$0.91	-$82.02	61% 13849-8708 (22557)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$61.09	$0.77	-$60.33	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$46.96	$0.19	-$18.1	55% 6024-5008 (11032)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$9.42	$0.1	-$9.31	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$6.03	$0.07	-$5.96	44% 4029-5217 (9246)

forgotmydinnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$136.36

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$134.86

Record

19%

49-212 (261)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.77

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$107.57

Record

79%

10607-2754 (13361)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.75

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$94.7

Record

55%

5874-4767 (10641)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.94

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$82.02

Record

61%

13849-8708 (22557)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.09

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$60.33

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.96

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$18.1

Record

55%

6024-5008 (11032)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.42

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$9.31

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.03

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$5.96

Record

44%

4029-5217 (9246)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.