Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Latvia win the UEFA EURO 2028?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $20 held · ends Jul 24, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 100%
$19.71
$4.79
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Late
149h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $6.79 | $7.84 | +$1.05 | 30% 35477-83899 (119376) |
CR crckrCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $2.06 | $2.36 | +$0.31 | 26% 871-2442 (3313) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yes | $2.19 | $2.19 | +$2.19 | 55% 25563-21209 (46772) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.08 | $1.91 | +$0.26 | 50% 21595-21452 (43047) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $1.53 | $1.77 | +$0.24 | 45% 16725-20380 (37105) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.02 | $1.51 | +$0.29 | 49% 24111-24663 (48774) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.31 | $1.13 | +$0.18 | 42% 15342-20806 (36148) |
PL plainfolderCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.65 | $0.65 | +$0.09 | 50% 19532-19373 (38905) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.15 | $0.35 | +$0.2 | 26% 598-1691 (2289) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$6.79
Value
$7.84
PnL
+$1.05
Record
30%
35477-83899 (119376)
Invested
$2.06
Value
$2.36
PnL
+$0.31
Record
26%
871-2442 (3313)
Invested
$2.19
Value
$2.19
PnL
+$2.19
Record
55%
25563-21209 (46772)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$1.91
PnL
+$0.26
Record
50%
21595-21452 (43047)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.77
PnL
+$0.24
Record
45%
16725-20380 (37105)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$1.51
PnL
+$0.29
Record
49%
24111-24663 (48774)
Invested
$0.31
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0.18
Record
42%
15342-20806 (36148)
Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.65
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
19532-19373 (38905)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0.2
Record
26%
598-1691 (2289)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.