Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lana Nusseibeh be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 32¢ · $766 held · ends Dec 31

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$766.16

Combined PnL

$571.39

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$672.09

Total Shares2,165

Combined PnL+$587.16

No2 traders

Total Value$94.07

Total Shares103

Combined PnL-$15.77

Yes — 82%No — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$14.46	$204.64	+$190.18	73% 12972-4916 (17888)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$17.48	$150.98	+$133.51	36% 2034-3660 (5694)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$13.18	$111.41	+$98.23	53% 29752-26614 (56366)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$10.3	$87.49	+$77.19	75% 13065-4252 (17317)
Istaroth	Noavg 76.3¢	$260.48	$75.77	-$13.07	14% 513-3102 (3615)
CR cry.eth2CTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$150	$47.25	+$44.75	40% 9880-14985 (24865)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$3.9	$33.01	+$29.11	72% 14222-5519 (19741)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yes	$21.5	$21.5	+$0	31% 3549-7933 (11482)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 74¢	$21	$18.3	-$2.7	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.97	$9.45	+$8.48	42% 10458-14590 (25048)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$20.2	$6.36	+$5.71	39% 3178-4986 (8164)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$14.46

Value

$204.64

PnL

+$190.18

Record

73%

12972-4916 (17888)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$17.48

Value

$150.98

PnL

+$133.51

Record

36%

2034-3660 (5694)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.18

Value

$111.41

PnL

+$98.23

Record

53%

29752-26614 (56366)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.3

Value

$87.49

PnL

+$77.19

Record

75%

13065-4252 (17317)

Istaroth

Invested

$260.48

Value

$75.77

PnL

-$13.07

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

cry.eth2CTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$47.25

PnL

+$44.75

Record

40%

9880-14985 (24865)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.9

Value

$33.01

PnL

+$29.11

Record

72%

14222-5519 (19741)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.5

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

3549-7933 (11482)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$18.3

PnL

-$2.7

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$8.48

Record

42%

10458-14590 (25048)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.2

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$5.71

Record

39%

3178-4986 (8164)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.