Will Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 93¢ · $450 held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$450.06

Combined PnL

$8.9

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 93.3¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$442.29

Total Shares473

Combined PnL+$9.79

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.77

Total Shares123

Combined PnL-$0.88

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

810h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456	Noavg 89.6¢	$200	$186.5	+$6.2	44% 2233-2896 (5129)
KO korda77	Noavg 93.7¢	$162.17	$162.18	+$0.01	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 91¢	$40.97	$42.17	+$1.2	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$35	$37.48	+$2.48	31% 3549-7933 (11482)
AU auros2<$100	Noavg 94¢	$14.07	$13.97	-$0.1	— 4-0 (4)
PorxCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$8.78	$6.3	-$1.65	66% 1503-781 (2284)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$0.55	$0.8	+$0.25	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.16	$0.68	+$0.52	31% 2678-6002 (8680)

123987456

Invested

$200

Value

$186.5

PnL

+$6.2

Record

44%

2233-2896 (5129)

korda77

Invested

$162.17

Value

$162.18

PnL

+$0.01

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$40.97

Value

$42.17

PnL

+$1.2

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$35

Value

$37.48

PnL

+$2.48

Record

31%

3549-7933 (11482)

auros2<$100

Invested

$14.07

Value

$13.97

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

4-0 (4)

PorxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.78

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$1.65

Record

66%

1503-781 (2284)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.52

Record

31%

2678-6002 (8680)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

810h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.5%

93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.