Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $159 held · ends Apr 16, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Apr 16, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$158.6

Combined PnL

$11.89

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 94.6¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$150.51

Total Shares159

Combined PnL+$20.52

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.09

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$8.63

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 85.2¢	$138.15	$147.13	+$20.15	68% 13198-6216 (19414)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$13.2	$6.48	-$8.76	42% 2349-3204 (5553)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$3.01	$3.38	+$0.36	53% 8588-7658 (16246)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.89	$1.61	+$0.13	55% 17-14 (31)

donthackme

Invested

$138.15

Value

$147.13

PnL

+$20.15

Record

68%

13198-6216 (19414)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.2

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$8.76

Record

42%

2349-3204 (5553)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$3.01

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

8588-7658 (16246)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

17-14 (31)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.