Will Lai Jui-lung win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 81¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.2K
$49.4
75.3¢ → 81¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
648h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 79.3¢ | $928.28 | $592.16 | -$15.71 | 56% 15250-11775 (27025) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 74.4¢ | $350.77 | $377.42 | +$26.64 | 55% 444-365 (809) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $96.1 | $128.18 | +$41.54 | 53% 1107-988 (2095) |
TH TheFOMCGambler | Yesavg 81.9¢ | $119.32 | $115.1 | -$2.03 | 76% 102-32 (134) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $11.01 | $9.96 | -$1.05 | 42% 141-196 (337) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$928.28
Value
$592.16
PnL
-$15.71
Record
56%
15250-11775 (27025)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$350.77
Value
$377.42
PnL
+$26.64
Record
55%
444-365 (809)
Invested
$96.1
Value
$128.18
PnL
+$41.54
Record
53%
1107-988 (2095)
Invested
$119.32
Value
$115.1
PnL
-$2.03
Record
76%
102-32 (134)
Invested
$11.01
Value
$9.96
PnL
-$1.05
Record
42%
141-196 (337)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.