Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lady Gaga have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $205 held · ends Nov 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$204.95

Combined PnL

$206.58

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$204.64

Total Shares205

Combined PnL+$131.44

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.32

Total Shares639

Combined PnL+$75.14

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 35.4¢	$74.34	$144.7	+$131.44	46% 9436-11158 (20594)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.94	-$0	53% 23817-20965 (44782)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.69	$0.15	-$0.54	67% 27575-13869 (41444)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$3.02	$0.05	-$2.97	19% 2916-12361 (15277)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$30.23	$0.04	+$86.32	43% 10647-14112 (24759)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.2	$0.03	-$2.4	23% 1808-6060 (7868)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$2.13	38% 1235-2012 (3247)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.55	$0.02	-$1.68	17% 396-1983 (2379)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$1.03	27% 611-1673 (2284)
broskyeCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	-$0.44	45% 166-206 (372)

smallreceipt

Invested

$74.34

Value

$144.7

PnL

+$131.44

Record

46%

9436-11158 (20594)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.94

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

23817-20965 (44782)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.54

Record

67%

27575-13869 (41444)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.02

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.97

Record

19%

2916-12361 (15277)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.23

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$86.32

Record

43%

10647-14112 (24759)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.4

Record

23%

1808-6060 (7868)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.13

Record

38%

1235-2012 (3247)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.68

Record

17%

396-1983 (2379)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.03

Record

27%

611-1673 (2284)

broskyeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.44

Record

45%

166-206 (372)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.