Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Labour Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $6 held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$5.55

Combined PnL

-$23.45

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$5.12

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes11 traders

Total Value$0.43

Total Shares852

Combined PnL-$23.46

No — 8%Yes — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.11	$5.12	+$0.01	38% 306-492 (798)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yes	$0.13	$0.13	-$7.84	53% 4521-4027 (8548)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$2.97	$0.07	-$2.9	72% 13809-5348 (19157)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.25	$0.05	-$3.02	27% 2510-6880 (9390)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.43	$0.05	-$2.88	17% 1312-6543 (7855)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.05	$0.05	-$2.71	25% 462-1416 (1878)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$1.64	43% 10598-14078 (24676)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.99	$0.02	-$0.97	23% 1782-6021 (7803)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.31	$0.01	-$0.75	16% 375-1956 (2331)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.57	28% 2774-7210 (9984)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	19% 2872-12252 (15124)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.1	$0	-$0.18	36% 5890-10627 (16517)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0.01

Record

38%

306-492 (798)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$7.84

Record

53%

4521-4027 (8548)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.97

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.9

Record

72%

13809-5348 (19157)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$3.02

Record

27%

2510-6880 (9390)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.88

Record

17%

1312-6543 (7855)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.71

Record

25%

462-1416 (1878)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.64

Record

43%

10598-14078 (24676)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.97

Record

23%

1782-6021 (7803)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.75

Record

16%

375-1956 (2331)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.57

Record

28%

2774-7210 (9984)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

2872-12252 (15124)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

PnL

-$0.18

Record

36%

5890-10627 (16517)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.