Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 32¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$104.46

Smart Money Entry

32.8¢ → 31.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$482.64

Total Shares1,556

Combined PnL+$55.54

Yes2 traders

Total Value$105.39

Total Shares153

Combined PnL+$48.93

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HaradwaithARB<$100	Yesavg 67.1¢	$1.1K	$362.8	+$10.49	41% 6394-9370 (15764)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.1¢	$238.92	$245.65	+$6.72
└ No leg	Noavg 32¢	$119	$117.15	+$3.77
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Noavg 32.5¢	$1.2K	$353.43	-$17.21	40% 304-464 (768)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 33¢	$118.14	$110.98	-$7.16	53% 8428-7501 (15929)
LornaPredicts	Yesavg 36.5¢	$270.45	$103.55	+$48.79	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Yesavg 67.5¢	$175.75	$61.66	-$21.11	18% 1302-6138 (7440)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.5¢	$33.75	$34.25	-$8.25
└ No leg	Noavg 36¢	$31.29	$27.41	-$12.86
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 33.5¢	$58.61	$15.75	+$82.31	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$4.89	$2.48	-$2.4	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
AN anoin123<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$1.72	$1.84	+$0.13	45% 528-650 (1178)

HaradwaithARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,141.45

Value

$362.8

PnL

+$10.49

Record

41%

6394-9370 (15764)

Both legs:

Yes$238.9267.1¢+$6.72

No$11932¢+$3.77

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$1,154.36

Value

$353.43

PnL

-$17.21

Record

40%

304-464 (768)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$118.14

Value

$110.98

PnL

-$7.16

Record

53%

8428-7501 (15929)

LornaPredicts

Yes

Invested

$270.45

Value

$103.55

PnL

+$48.79

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

WarriorHARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$175.75

Value

$61.66

PnL

-$21.11

Record

18%

1302-6138 (7440)

Both legs:

Yes$33.7567.5¢-$8.25

No$31.2936¢-$12.86

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$58.61

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$82.31

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$2.4

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

anoin123<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0.13

Record

45%

528-650 (1178)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.4%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$199.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

299.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.