Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $283 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$282.86
$7.58
94.6¢ → 97.8¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
142h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 94¢ | $117.5 | $121.25 | +$3.75 | — 1-11 (12) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $70.05 | $72.75 | +$2.7 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $48.57 | $48.44 | -$0.12 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.2 | $19.4 | +$0.2 | 50% 4477-4426 (8903) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $12.89 | $13.44 | +$0.55 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $10.23 | $5.87 | +$0.48 | 39% 1043-1626 (2669) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $1.7 | $1.71 | +$0.01 | 25% 1194-3512 (4706) |
probabilityInvested
$117.5
Value
$121.25
PnL
+$3.75
Record
—
1-11 (12)
Invested
$70.05
Value
$72.75
PnL
+$2.7
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$48.57
Value
$48.44
PnL
-$0.12
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.2
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
4477-4426 (8903)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.89
Value
$13.44
PnL
+$0.55
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$5.87
PnL
+$0.48
Record
39%
1043-1626 (2669)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.71
PnL
+$0.01
Record
25%
1194-3512 (4706)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.