Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Labaron Philon Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 38¢ · $138 held · ends May 31, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$137.96
$34.35
Research grade
AvoidYes at 38%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN ancianoCTR<$100 | Yes | $71.24 | $71.24 | -$1.87 | 54% 1468-1226 (2694) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $3.34 | $40.26 | +$36.91 | 40% 6562-9840 (16402) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.65 | $26.47 | -$0.69 | 27% 2544-6903 (9447) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.