Will Kyler Murray finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 79¢ · $105 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
$104.85
$17.62
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | Noavg 79.1¢ | $79.82 | $100.69 | +$20.88 | 66% 608-308 (916) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $4.16 | $4.16 | -$3.26 | 17% 393-1939 (2332) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.