Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Kratos win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $50 held · ends Nov 29

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$49.55

Combined PnL

-$5.92

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$49.53

Total Shares4,065

Combined PnL-$5.92

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$1.9K	$33.49	+$7.19	— 4-6 (10)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$334.05	$5.68	+$0.77	57% 87-65 (152)
AnjunCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$214.91	$3.65	+$3.22	— 1-0 (1)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.66	$3.08	+$0.42	49% 99-103 (202)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.34	$1.28	-$1.07	—
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yes	$1.14	$1.14	-$15.83	91% 41-4 (45)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.34	$0.78	+$0.44	—
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.28	$0.36	+$0.08	— 15-4 (19)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yes	$0.05	$0.05	-$0.71	— 1-9 (10)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.27	—
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.15	80% 121-30 (151)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,948

Value

$33.49

PnL

+$7.19

Record

—

4-6 (10)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$334.05

Value

$5.68

PnL

+$0.77

Record

57%

87-65 (152)

AnjunCTR

Yes

Invested

$214.91

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$3.22

Record

—

1-0 (1)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

99-103 (202)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$1.07

Record

—

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$15.83

Record

91%

41-4 (45)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.78

PnL

+$0.44

Record

—

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

15-4 (19)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.71

Record

—

1-9 (10)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.27

Record

—

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.15

Record

80%

121-30 (151)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.8%

1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3431.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

3531.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.