Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Koa Peat win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $22 held · ends May 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, May 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$22.03

Combined PnL

-$23.57

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$22.03

Total Shares10,127

Combined PnL-$23.57

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$7.93	$19.84	+$0	41% 1295-1880 (3175)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$11.06	$1	-$10.06	42% 565-794 (1359)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$6.04	$0.49	-$5.55	60% 7178-4743 (11921)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$4.78	$0.39	-$4.39	25% 181-537 (718)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.94	$0.16	-$1.78	50% 7811-7861 (15672)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.84	$0.07	-$0.77	23% 177-601 (778)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.58	$0.05	-$0.53	55% 5874-4771 (10645)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.41	$0.03	-$0.38	51% 218-210 (428)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.11	$0.01	-$0.1	35% 105-199 (304)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.93

Value

$19.84

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1295-1880 (3175)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.06

Value

PnL

-$10.06

Record

42%

565-794 (1359)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.04

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$5.55

Record

60%

7178-4743 (11921)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.78

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$4.39

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.94

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.78

Record

50%

7811-7861 (15672)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.77

Record

23%

177-601 (778)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.53

Record

55%

5874-4771 (10645)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.38

Record

51%

218-210 (428)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.1

Record

35%

105-199 (304)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.