Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Knight have the most kills at Worlds 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 28¢ · $167 held · ends Dec 15
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$167.32
-$13.52
30.2¢ → 28.1¢
-7% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Noavg 29.8¢ | $43.11 | $39.63 | -$3.48 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Noavg 30.1¢ | $42.11 | $39.31 | -$2.8 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Noavg 30.1¢ | $30.14 | $28.13 | -$2 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 30.7¢ | $30.68 | $28.1 | -$2.58 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.6¢ | $18.98 | $16.86 | -$2.12 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Noavg 30.1¢ | $10.35 | $9.67 | -$0.69 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.4¢ | $5.48 | $5.62 | +$0.14 | 82% 41-9 (50) |
Invested
$43.11
Value
$39.63
PnL
-$3.48
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
Invested
$42.11
Value
$39.31
PnL
-$2.8
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$30.14
Value
$28.13
PnL
-$2
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$30.68
Value
$28.1
PnL
-$2.58
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$18.98
Value
$16.86
PnL
-$2.12
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Invested
$10.35
Value
$9.67
PnL
-$0.69
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$5.48
Value
$5.62
PnL
+$0.14
Record
82%
41-9 (50)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.