Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $562 held · ends May 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, May 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$561.83

Combined PnL

$1.12

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$561.54

Total Shares562

Combined PnL+$1.21

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.29

Total Shares190

Combined PnL-$0.09

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

175h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.8¢	$239.52	$239.64	+$0.12	53% 5689-5114 (10803)
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.7¢	$119.61	$119.82	+$0.21	17% 66-330 (396)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$59.83	$59.91	+$0.08	31% 2735-6214 (8949)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$57.53	$57.84	+$0.31	24% 77-243 (320)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$42.08	$42.4	+$0.32	37% 3224-5382 (8606)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$41.76	$41.93	+$0.17	51% 4670-4532 (9202)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.38	$0.29	-$0.09	12% 22-156 (178)

cigarettes

Invested

$239.52

Value

$239.64

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

5689-5114 (10803)

god83743894

Invested

$119.61

Value

$119.82

PnL

+$0.21

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$59.83

Value

$59.91

PnL

+$0.08

Record

31%

2735-6214 (8949)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$57.53

Value

$57.84

PnL

+$0.31

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$42.08

Value

$42.4

PnL

+$0.32

Record

37%

3224-5382 (8606)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$41.76

Value

$41.93

PnL

+$0.17

Record

51%

4670-4532 (9202)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.09

Record

12%

22-156 (178)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

175h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.