Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 23¢ · $472 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$472.24
-$26.8
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 macrosteaksCTR | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $153.55 | $350.08 | -$49.84 | 54% 3270-2740 (6010) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $72.59 | $70.63 | -$1.88 | 17% 399-1952 (2351) |
ME melganis<$100 | Noavg 39.3¢ | $26.62 | $51.53 | +$24.91 | 75% 1599-543 (2142) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.