Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kevin Durant win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$0.65
-$19.57
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $7.35 | $0.27 | -$7.08 | 92% 8456-738 (9194) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $5.01 | $0.15 | -$4.86 | 62% 13833-8580 (22413) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $3.55 | $0.11 | -$3.44 | 25% 180-534 (714) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $2.02 | $0.06 | -$1.96 | 31% 2176-4867 (7043) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $1.39 | $0.04 | -$1.35 | 30% 320-759 (1079) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.9 | $0.03 | -$0.88 | 28% 212-552 (764) |
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$7.35
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$7.08
Record
92%
8456-738 (9194)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$4.86
Record
62%
13833-8580 (22413)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$3.44
Record
25%
180-534 (714)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$1.96
Record
31%
2176-4867 (7043)
Invested
$1.39
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$1.35
Record
30%
320-759 (1079)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.88
Record
28%
212-552 (764)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.