Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 2.3¢ · $148 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$148.43
-$109.62
17.4¢ → 2.3¢
-87% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
57h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $77.92 | $80.39 | +$2.47 | 48% 7306-8015 (15321) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 61.8¢ | $18.55 | $29.01 | +$10.46 | 49% 9352-9925 (19277) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $20.48 | $24.84 | +$4.36 | 71% 13104-5267 (18371) |
 andy29CTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $426.27 | $7.76 | -$120.02 | 47% 795-904 (1699) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $2.44 | $2.59 | +$0.16 | 20% 2805-11188 (13993) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $166 | $1.93 | -$5.82 | 48% 1966-2118 (4084) |
 CosmicCedarCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $105.18 | $1.89 | -$1.23 | 51% 1091-1064 (2155) |
Invested
$77.92
Value
$80.39
PnL
+$2.47
Record
48%
7306-8015 (15321)
Invested
$18.55
Value
$29.01
PnL
+$10.46
Record
49%
9352-9925 (19277)
Invested
$20.48
Value
$24.84
PnL
+$4.36
Record
71%
13104-5267 (18371)
andy29CTRInvested
$426.27
Value
$7.76
PnL
-$120.02
Record
47%
795-904 (1699)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.44
Value
$2.59
PnL
+$0.16
Record
20%
2805-11188 (13993)
Invested
$166
Value
$1.93
PnL
-$5.82
Record
48%
1966-2118 (4084)
CosmicCedarCTRInvested
$105.18
Value
$1.89
PnL
-$1.23
Record
51%
1091-1064 (2155)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.