Will Keith Riel win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $535 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$535
$195.57
63.7¢ → 99.5¢
+56% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 62¢ | $324.29 | $276.27 | +$39.18 | 36% 14380-25784 (40164) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR | Yesavg 17.7¢ | $243.51 | $196.99 | +$165.78 | 55% 42-34 (76) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $41.3 | $41.3 | +$0 | 62% 20216-12621 (32837) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $15.4 | $11.8 | -$3.6 | 18% 3740-16588 (20328) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $14.54 | $8.76 | -$5.79 | 32% 4222-8872 (13094) |
Invested
$324.29
Value
$276.27
PnL
+$39.18
Record
36%
14380-25784 (40164)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTRInvested
$243.51
Value
$196.99
PnL
+$165.78
Record
55%
42-34 (76)
balthazar<$100Invested
$41.3
Value
$41.3
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
20216-12621 (32837)
2B9S<$100Invested
$15.4
Value
$11.8
PnL
-$3.6
Record
18%
3740-16588 (20328)
Invested
$14.54
Value
$8.76
PnL
-$5.79
Record
32%
4222-8872 (13094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.