Will Keaton Wagler win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $557 held · ends May 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$557.27
$0.14
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
223h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.8¢ | $239.52 | $239.64 | +$0.12 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $117.72 | $117.75 | +$0.03 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.93 | $59.91 | -$0.02 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.91 | -$0.03 | 27% 105-283 (388) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $42.38 | $42.4 | +$0.02 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $37.64 | $37.66 | +$0.02 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
Invested
$239.52
Value
$239.64
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$117.72
Value
$117.75
PnL
+$0.03
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$59.93
Value
$59.91
PnL
-$0.02
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.91
PnL
-$0.03
Record
27%
105-283 (388)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$42.38
Value
$42.4
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
3224-5382 (8606)
balthazar<$100Invested
$37.64
Value
$37.66
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.