Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.2

Combined PnL

-$9.1

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2

Total Shares860

Combined PnL-$9.1

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$4.63	$0.51	-$4.12	92% 8583-746 (9329)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.55	$0.32	-$3.23	25% 180-537 (717)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.09	$0.19	+$0.09	41% 1295-1879 (3174)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.02	$0.18	-$1.84	30% 2186-5024 (7210)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.63

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$4.12

Record

92%

8583-746 (9329)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$3.23

Record

25%

180-537 (717)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.09

Record

41%

1295-1879 (3174)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$1.84

Record

30%

2186-5024 (7210)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.