Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$134.18

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 81¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,341

Combined PnL+$199.38

Yes4 traders

Total Value$819.2

Total Shares3,065

Combined PnL-$333.56

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

218h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
paddaa	Noavg 72.7¢	$826.91	$915.56	+$88.65	57% 867-665 (1532)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 28.3¢	$433.34	$474.63	-$118.96	50% 1032-1048 (2080)
cambridgeisaac	Noavg 71.3¢	$367.99	$428.87	+$60.88	57% 1131-860 (1991)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 71.7¢	$375.69	$422.04	+$46.35	72% 3577-1363 (4940)
morito181CTR	Yesavg 32.1¢	$524.67	$319.03	-$205.63	61% 875-556 (1431)
Rex416CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$22.43	$23.79	-$9.17	57% 2617-2003 (4620)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 79¢	$30.69	$13	+$3.5	19% 2852-12176 (15028)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.75	+$0.2	77% 12683-3869 (16552)

paddaa

Invested

$826.91

Value

$915.56

PnL

+$88.65

Record

57%

867-665 (1532)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$433.34

Value

$474.63

PnL

-$118.96

Record

50%

1032-1048 (2080)

cambridgeisaac

Invested

$367.99

Value

$428.87

PnL

+$60.88

Record

57%

1131-860 (1991)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$375.69

Value

$422.04

PnL

+$46.35

Record

72%

3577-1363 (4940)

morito181CTR

Yes

Invested

$524.67

Value

$319.03

PnL

-$205.63

Record

61%

875-556 (1431)

Rex416CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.43

Value

$23.79

PnL

-$9.17

Record

57%

2617-2003 (4620)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$30.69

Value

$13

PnL

+$3.5

Record

19%

2852-12176 (15028)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.2

Record

77%

12683-3869 (16552)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

218h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.