Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Katie Miller be the next White House Press Secretary?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.1¢ · $162 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$161.93
$82.56
2.2¢ → 2.1¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $3.73 | $137.16 | +$71.14 | 57% 824-632 (1456) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.79 | $10.54 | +$5.72 | 60% 3339-2248 (5587) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $4.21 | $8.54 | +$4.33 | 57% 2513-1910 (4423) |
10 101456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $3.62 | $5.3 | +$1.68 | 48% 110-120 (230) |
 HorribleWorkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $0.73 | $0.39 | -$0.32 | 60% 465-307 (772) |
paddaaCTRInvested
$3.73
Value
$137.16
PnL
+$71.14
Record
57%
824-632 (1456)
Invested
$0.79
Value
$10.54
PnL
+$5.72
Record
60%
3339-2248 (5587)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$4.21
Value
$8.54
PnL
+$4.33
Record
57%
2513-1910 (4423)
Invested
$3.62
Value
$5.3
PnL
+$1.68
Record
48%
110-120 (230)
HorribleWorkCTR<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$0.32
Record
60%
465-307 (772)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.