Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 17 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

17 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.41

Combined PnL

-$55.8

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$5.41

Total Shares4,022

Combined PnL-$55.8

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

84h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$1.73	$1.73	-$18.58	47% 10333-11806 (22139)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$7.31	$1.7	-$15.12	31% 3239-7107 (10346)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.22	$0.54	-$5.87	26% 562-1631 (2193)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.25	$0.28	+$0.03	72% 13773-5258 (19031)
UbuntuTradingCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$399.99	$0.2	-$6.47	55% 3176-2633 (5809)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.21	$0.17	-$0.04	18% 245-1134 (1379)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.24	$0.15	-$1.65	17% 1312-6537 (7849)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.12	$0.12	-$1.35	37% 4013-6771 (10784)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.11	$0.12	-$1.35	29% 443-1103 (1546)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$0.1	$0.1	-$1.04	— 4-0 (4)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.07	$0.08	-$0.88	29% 328-805 (1133)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.27	$0.08	-$1.2	28% 576-1485 (2061)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.2	$0.04	-$1.17	23% 780-2548 (3328)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.03	-$0.32	53% 23490-20724 (44214)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	$8.95	$0.02	-$0.37	49% 6544-6928 (13472)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.23	29% 346-843 (1189)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$0.02	-$0.21	41% 796-1138 (1934)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$18.58

Record

47%

10333-11806 (22139)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.31

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$15.12

Record

31%

3239-7107 (10346)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$5.87

Record

26%

562-1631 (2193)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

72%

13773-5258 (19031)

UbuntuTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$399.99

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$6.47

Record

55%

3176-2633 (5809)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.04

Record

18%

245-1134 (1379)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.65

Record

17%

1312-6537 (7849)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.35

Record

37%

4013-6771 (10784)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.35

Record

29%

443-1103 (1546)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.04

Record

—

4-0 (4)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.88

Record

29%

328-805 (1133)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.2

Record

28%

576-1485 (2061)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.17

Record

23%

780-2548 (3328)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

23490-20724 (44214)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.95

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.37

Record

49%

6544-6928 (13472)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.23

Record

29%

346-843 (1189)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.21

Record

41%

796-1138 (1934)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

84h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.