Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 14?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$159.45

Combined PnL

-$29.56

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$157.01

Total Shares161

Combined PnL-$0.15

No2 traders

Total Value$2.45

Total Shares489

Combined PnL-$29.41

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 97.4¢	$150	$150	+$0	— 2-4 (6)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 99.5¢	$7.16	$7.01	-$0.15	— 12-2 (14)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 0.5¢	$1.25	$1.29	+$0.04	52% 5301-4808 (10109)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 2.7¢	$568.36	$1.16	-$29.45	66% 4051-2064 (6115)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$0

Record

—

2-4 (6)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.16

Value

$7.01

PnL

-$0.15

Record

—

12-2 (14)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

5301-4808 (10109)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$568.36

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$29.45

Record

66%

4051-2064 (6115)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.