Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 100¢ · $852 held · ends Oct 25, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$851.56

Combined PnL

-$35.92

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$848.05

Total Shares850

Combined PnL+$0.33

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.25

Total Shares1,312

Combined PnL-$36.24

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.8¢	$427.03	$426.93	-$0.1	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 99.6¢	$318.44	$308.8	+$0.34	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.93	$19.96	+$0.03	39% 3178-4986 (8164)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$12.38	$12.41	+$0.03	77% 12520-3844 (16364)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$1.45	$1.45	-$8.74	6% 14-232 (246)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.5	$0.5	-$3.02	55% 3162-2559 (5721)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$4.26	$0.14	-$4.13	51% 151-144 (295)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$61.52	$0.12	-$20.29	36% 2034-3660 (5694)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.08	$0.05	-$0.03	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	-$0.03	18% 34-151 (185)

smallreceipt

Invested

$427.03

Value

$426.93

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

ghorrock

Invested

$318.44

Value

$308.8

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$19.93

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

3178-4986 (8164)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$12.38

Value

$12.41

PnL

+$0.03

Record

77%

12520-3844 (16364)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$8.74

Record

14-232 (246)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$3.02

Record

55%

3162-2559 (5721)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$4.13

Record

51%

151-144 (295)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.52

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$20.29

Record

36%

2034-3660 (5694)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.03

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

18%

34-151 (185)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.