Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $50 held · ends Oct 25, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$50.45
-$5.02
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
80h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GI GingerMcKenna<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $39.85 | $39.95 | +$0.1 | 37% 3298-5675 (8973) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 99.6¢ | $246.45 | $9.99 | -$0.02 | 58% 21212-15411 (36623) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $4.21 | $0.27 | -$3.95 | 51% 154-147 (301) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.24 | $0.12 | -$1.13 | 6% 14-233 (247) |
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100 | Yes | $0 | $0 | -$0.03 | 19% 36-154 (190) |
Invested
$39.85
Value
$39.95
PnL
+$0.1
Record
37%
3298-5675 (8973)
Invested
$246.45
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
21212-15411 (36623)
Invested
$4.21
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$3.95
Record
51%
154-147 (301)
Invested
$1.24
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$1.13
Record
6%
14-233 (247)
Invested
$0
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.03
Record
19%
36-154 (190)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.