Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 18 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Joshua Baez win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

18 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Dec 19

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Dec 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.69

Combined PnL

-$34.29

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$1.69

Total Shares3,376

Combined PnL-$34.29

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.64	$0.65	-$0.99	72% 13809-5348 (19157)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$12.47	$0.44	-$16.58	31% 3243-7118 (10361)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.95	$0.12	-$1.83	41% 816-1170 (1986)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.07	-$3.07	29% 473-1160 (1633)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.76	$0.06	-$2.61	38% 7141-11766 (18907)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.32	$0.06	-$2.57	34% 3309-6343 (9652)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.11	$0.05	-$1.06	39% 2901-4499 (7400)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.21	$0.04	-$0.17	54% 12451-10711 (23162)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.72	$0.04	-$1.68	20% 342-1337 (1679)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.47	$0.03	-$0.44	40% 256-391 (647)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$1.25	37% 4013-6774 (10787)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$0.03	-$1.06	17% 1312-6543 (7855)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0	23% 1782-6021 (7803)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.06	$0.01	-$0.05	28% 2774-7210 (9984)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.01	+$0	18% 245-1134 (1379)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.42	38% 306-492 (798)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.3	$0.01	-$0.29	23% 780-2548 (3328)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.01	-$0.21	39% 5748-9161 (14909)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.99

Record

72%

13809-5348 (19157)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.47

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$16.58

Record

31%

3243-7118 (10361)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.83

Record

41%

816-1170 (1986)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.07

Record

29%

473-1160 (1633)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.61

Record

38%

7141-11766 (18907)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.32

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.57

Record

34%

3309-6343 (9652)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.06

Record

39%

2901-4499 (7400)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.17

Record

54%

12451-10711 (23162)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.72

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.68

Record

20%

342-1337 (1679)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.44

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.25

Record

37%

4013-6774 (10787)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.06

Record

17%

1312-6543 (7855)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0

Record

23%

1782-6021 (7803)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

28%

2774-7210 (9984)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

245-1134 (1379)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.42

Record

38%

306-492 (798)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.29

Record

23%

780-2548 (3328)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.21

Record

39%

5748-9161 (14909)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.