Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 30¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$114.59

Smart Money Entry

32.2¢ → 30.3¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$846.7

Total Shares2,799

Combined PnL+$111.07

No1 trader

Total Value$233.77

Total Shares335

Combined PnL+$3.52

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 32.5¢	$208.24	$840.8	+$105	48% 7436-8152 (15588)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 67.6¢	$217.05	$233.77	+$3.52	53% 23826-20970 (44796)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$5.29	+$5.48	33% 7014-13992 (21006)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.01	$0.61	+$0.59	32% 3291-7153 (10444)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$208.24

Value

$840.8

PnL

+$105

Record

48%

7436-8152 (15588)

cigarettes

Invested

$217.05

Value

$233.77

PnL

+$3.52

Record

53%

23826-20970 (44796)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$5.48

Record

33%

7014-13992 (21006)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.59

Record

32%

3291-7153 (10444)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.3%

30.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$209.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

309.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.