Will Josephine win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

2 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (12%) · No at 100¢ · $231 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 12%

Total Value

$231.48

Combined PnL

-$88.41

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 17 top traders (12%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$224.78

Total Shares225

Combined PnL-$0.05

Yes15 traders

Total Value$5.85

Total Shares5,996

Combined PnL-$88.36

No — 12%Yes — 88%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

12% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL plainfolder	Noavg 99.9¢	$130.58	$129.87	-$0.05	35% 4427-8266 (12693)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$94.91	$94.91	+$0	49% 9352-9925 (19277)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.23	$3.6	-$26.62	48% 1350-1485 (2835)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$6.67	$0.6	-$6.07	17% 102-514 (616)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.56	$0.5	-$5.31	39% 665-1061 (1726)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.3K	$0.24	-$30.51	75% 13414-4377 (17791)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.74	$0.18	-$3.82	53% 23272-20444 (43716)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.18	$0.18	-$3.75	45% 10561-12883 (23444)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yes	$0.12	$0.12	-$2.64	18% 34-151 (185)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.99	$0.12	-$0.63	31% 738-1609 (2347)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.75	$0.06	-$2.69	57% 12346-9221 (21567)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.08	$0.06	-$1.18	29% 442-1098 (1540)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.56	$0.05	-$0.53	28% 575-1484 (2059)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	$0.05	$0.05	-$0.99	51% 6366-6001 (12367)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.9	$0.04	-$1.85	35% 2058-3741 (5799)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.28	$0.03	-$1.25	37% 4005-6748 (10753)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.54	$0.01	-$0.53	18% 244-1130 (1374)

plainfolder

Invested

$130.58

Value

$129.87

PnL

-$0.05

Record

35%

4427-8266 (12693)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$94.91

Value

$94.91

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

9352-9925 (19277)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.23

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$26.62

Record

48%

1350-1485 (2835)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.67

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$6.07

Record

17%

102-514 (616)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$5.31

Record

39%

665-1061 (1726)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,319.14

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$30.51

Record

75%

13414-4377 (17791)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.74

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$3.82

Record

53%

23272-20444 (43716)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$3.75

Record

45%

10561-12883 (23444)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$2.64

Record

18%

34-151 (185)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.63

Record

31%

738-1609 (2347)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.69

Record

57%

12346-9221 (21567)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.18

Record

29%

442-1098 (1540)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.53

Record

28%

575-1484 (2059)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.99

Record

51%

6366-6001 (12367)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.85

Record

35%

2058-3741 (5799)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.25

Record

37%

4005-6748 (10753)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.53

Record

18%

244-1130 (1374)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 17 top traders (12%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

12% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.