Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $442 held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$441.66
-$272.83
35.9¢ → 6.5¢
-82% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
66h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 92.4¢ | $273.71 | $277.39 | +$3.67 | 85% 1874-338 (2212) |
 nicoco89<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $65 | $92 | +$28 | 65% 1074-583 (1657) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $246.25 | $54.41 | -$191.84 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yesavg 63.2¢ | $125.54 | $12.9 | -$112.63 | 55% 446-365 (811) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $4.99 | $4.96 | -$0.03 | 73% 176-66 (242) |
archaicInvested
$273.71
Value
$277.39
PnL
+$3.67
Record
85%
1874-338 (2212)
nicoco89<$100Invested
$65
Value
$92
PnL
+$28
Record
65%
1074-583 (1657)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$246.25
Value
$54.41
PnL
-$191.84
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$125.54
Value
$12.9
PnL
-$112.63
Record
55%
446-365 (811)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$0.03
Record
73%
176-66 (242)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.