Will Jonathan Taylor's next team be the Seattle Seahawks?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $228 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$227.75
-$0.12
99.4¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.7¢ | $103.92 | $103.55 | -$0.37 | 18% 54-241 (295) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $79.25 | $79.48 | +$0.23 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $30.77 | $30.8 | +$0.03 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $13.86 | $13.89 | +$0.03 | 26% 1207-3517 (4724) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.07 | $0.04 | -$0.04 | 12% 17-121 (138) |
Invested
$103.92
Value
$103.55
PnL
-$0.37
Record
18%
54-241 (295)
balthazar<$100Invested
$79.25
Value
$79.48
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$30.77
Value
$30.8
PnL
+$0.03
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$13.86
Value
$13.89
PnL
+$0.03
Record
26%
1207-3517 (4724)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.04
Record
12%
17-121 (138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.