Will Jonathan Taylor's next team be the Pittsburgh Steelers?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $153 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$152.78
-$2.19
99.8¢ → 97.9¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $74.04 | $72.7 | -$1.34 | 40% 1433-2157 (3590) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $30.91 | $30.36 | -$0.54 | 82% 41-9 (50) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.39 | -$0.58 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.59 | -$0.35 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.11 | $0.74 | +$0.63 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
Invested
$74.04
Value
$72.7
PnL
-$1.34
Record
40%
1433-2157 (3590)
Invested
$30.91
Value
$30.36
PnL
-$0.54
Record
82%
41-9 (50)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.39
PnL
-$0.58
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.59
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.74
PnL
+$0.63
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.