Will Jonathan Taylor's next team be the Philadelphia Eagles?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$175.96
$0.08
99.8¢ → 97¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $74 | $74.07 | +$0.07 | 17% 49-241 (290) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.88 | $39.92 | +$0.04 | 50% 4571-4481 (9052) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.94 | +$0 | 19% 65-276 (341) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.94 | -$0.03 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $1.99 | $1.99 | +$0 | 26% 1205-3516 (4721) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.1 | $0.1 | +$0 | 12% 16-115 (131) |
Invested
$74
Value
$74.07
PnL
+$0.07
Record
17%
49-241 (290)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.88
Value
$39.92
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
4571-4481 (9052)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0
Record
19%
65-276 (341)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.94
PnL
-$0.03
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$1.99
Value
$1.99
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
1205-3516 (4721)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.1
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
16-115 (131)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.