Will Jonathan Taylor's next team be the Minnesota Vikings?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $171 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$170.61
-$5.47
98.3¢ → 99.8¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 42%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $44.15 | $42.1 | -$2.05 | 29% 870-2138 (3008) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $29.45 | $29.51 | +$0.06 | 82% 41-9 (50) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $28.92 | $28.57 | -$0.35 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $29.73 | $28.56 | -$1.17 | 22% 78-279 (357) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $28.56 | -$1.41 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $13.86 | $13.31 | -$0.55 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
Invested
$44.15
Value
$42.1
PnL
-$2.05
Record
29%
870-2138 (3008)
Invested
$29.45
Value
$29.51
PnL
+$0.06
Record
82%
41-9 (50)
balthazar<$100Invested
$28.92
Value
$28.57
PnL
-$0.35
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$29.73
Value
$28.56
PnL
-$1.17
Record
22%
78-279 (357)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$28.56
PnL
-$1.41
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
Invested
$13.86
Value
$13.31
PnL
-$0.55
Record
26%
1209-3518 (4727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.