Will Jonathan Taylor's next team be the Chicago Bears?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$126.26
$0.05
99.8¢ → 98.3¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $59.87 | $59.88 | +$0.01 | 29% 862-2136 (2998) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $44.13 | $44.13 | +$0 | 11% 44-371 (415) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.96 | +$0.02 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $1.99 | $1.99 | +$0 | 26% 1207-3517 (4724) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.26 | $0.26 | +$0 | 12% 17-121 (138) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.04 | +$0.02 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
Invested
$59.87
Value
$59.88
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
862-2136 (2998)
Invested
$44.13
Value
$44.13
PnL
+$0
Record
11%
44-371 (415)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$1.99
Value
$1.99
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
1207-3517 (4724)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.26
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
17-121 (138)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.04
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
22-22 (44)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.