Will Jonathan Taylor's next team be the Arizona Cardinals?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$115.61
-$0.84
99.8¢ → 98.2¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.8¢ | $104.01 | $102.08 | -$1.93 | 19% 58-241 (299) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.9 | $9.71 | -$0.19 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.99 | $1.95 | -$0.04 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.54 | $1.85 | +$1.31 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.01 | $0.03 | +$0.02 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
Invested
$104.01
Value
$102.08
PnL
-$1.93
Record
19%
58-241 (299)
balthazar<$100Invested
$9.9
Value
$9.71
PnL
-$0.19
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$1.99
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$0.04
Record
26%
1209-3518 (4727)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.54
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$1.31
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.03
PnL
+$0.02
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.