Will Jon Ossoff win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 80¢ · $269 held · ends Jan 23, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$268.82
$14.79
72.5¢ → 80¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 79.7¢ | $206 | $200.01 | -$3.49 | 17% 393-1939 (2332) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 44.7¢ | $26.36 | $48.38 | +$22.02 | 62% 13833-8580 (22413) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $16.6 | $16.4 | -$0.2 | 56% 18332-14683 (33015) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $2.3 | $2.23 | -$0.06 | 77% 11689-3583 (15272) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $12.41 | $1.8 | -$3.48 | 17% 1014-4846 (5860) |
IstarothInvested
$206
Value
$200.01
PnL
-$3.49
Record
17%
393-1939 (2332)
Invested
$26.36
Value
$48.38
PnL
+$22.02
Record
62%
13833-8580 (22413)
Invested
$16.6
Value
$16.4
PnL
-$0.2
Record
56%
18332-14683 (33015)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.06
Record
77%
11689-3583 (15272)
Invested
$12.41
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$3.48
Record
17%
1014-4846 (5860)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.