Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Joint List win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$245.29

Smart Money Entry

13.4¢ → 1.5¢

-89% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$501.66

Total Shares566

Combined PnL+$0.24

Yes3 traders

Total Value$614.89

Total Shares4,757

Combined PnL-$245.52

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 88.7¢	$434.47	$426.66	-$7.81	61% 20834-13247 (34081)
SI SinbetiCTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$400	$333.77	-$66.23	—
LU Luigi3333CTR	Yesavg 10.8¢	$230	$274.66	-$174.75	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$79.55	$75	+$8.04	57% 13342-10199 (23541)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yes	$6.46	$6.46	-$4.54	23% 288-962 (1250)

balthazar

Invested

$434.47

Value

$426.66

PnL

-$7.81

Record

61%

20834-13247 (34081)

SinbetiCTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$333.77

PnL

-$66.23

Record

—

Luigi3333CTR

Yes

Invested

$230

Value

$274.66

PnL

-$174.75

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$79.55

Value

$75

PnL

+$8.04

Record

57%

13342-10199 (23541)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.46

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$4.54

Record

23%

288-962 (1250)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3714.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

3814.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.