Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 62¢ · $515 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$515.41
$74.91
45.9¢ → 62.4¢
+36% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME melonmanmARB<$100 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $67.59 | $168.16 | +$100.57 | 65% 484-260 (744) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $18 | $106.88 | +$102.6 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56.8¢ | $115.72 | $61.28 | -$2.04 | |
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557 | Yesavg 62.5¢ | $137.54 | $153.78 | +$16.24 | — |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 45.3¢ | $182.41 | $114.63 | -$57.97 | 28% 280-738 (1018) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $17.81 | $79.53 | -$39.59 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45.3¢ | $52.8 | $35.1 | -$18.39 | |
 BiDiFakePolls<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $3.02 | $40.35 | +$37.33 | 58% 172-124 (296) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $4.21 | $24.51 | +$20.3 | 32% 4334-9323 (13657) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 58.1¢ | $23.24 | $13.98 | +$1.04 | 42% 5192-7113 (12305) |
Invested
$67.59
Value
$168.16
PnL
+$100.57
Record
65%
484-260 (744)
Both legs:
Invested
$137.54
Value
$153.78
PnL
+$16.24
Record
—
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$182.41
Value
$114.63
PnL
-$57.97
Record
28%
280-738 (1018)
Both legs:
BiDiFakePolls<$100Invested
$3.02
Value
$40.35
PnL
+$37.33
Record
58%
172-124 (296)
Invested
$4.21
Value
$24.51
PnL
+$20.3
Record
32%
4334-9323 (13657)
Invested
$23.24
Value
$13.98
PnL
+$1.04
Record
42%
5192-7113 (12305)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.