Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 96¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$9.0K
$742.46
82.6¢ → 95.5¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960 | Yesavg 84.1¢ | $8.2K | $8.8K | +$623 | 61% 146-94 (240) |
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557 | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $46.66 | $132.93 | +$86.28 | 28% 49-125 (174) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $35.2 | $87.44 | +$52.25 | 65% 484-260 (744) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 21.9¢ | $47 | $14.79 | -$16.56 | 42% 5194-7118 (12312) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.2¢ | $46.71 | $4.53 | -$2.51 | 53% 6327-5543 (11870) |
Invested
$8,156.31
Value
$8.8K
PnL
+$623
Record
61%
146-94 (240)
Invested
$46.66
Value
$132.93
PnL
+$86.28
Record
28%
49-125 (174)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$87.44
PnL
+$52.25
Record
65%
484-260 (744)
Invested
$47
Value
$14.79
PnL
-$16.56
Record
42%
5194-7118 (12312)
Invested
$46.71
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$2.51
Record
53%
6327-5543 (11870)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.