Will John Leguizamo win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $111 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$110.93
$0
94¢ → 95.6¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $48.63 | $48.18 | -$0.45 | — 1-10 (11) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $37.44 | $37.36 | -$0.08 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $10.46 | $10.46 | +$0 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $8.56 | $8.41 | -$0.15 | 23% 510-1692 (2202) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $5.4 | $5.93 | +$0.53 | 39% 1043-1627 (2670) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $0.44 | $0.59 | +$0.15 | 85% 62-11 (73) |
Invested
$48.63
Value
$48.18
PnL
-$0.45
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Invested
$37.44
Value
$37.36
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.46
Value
$10.46
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$8.56
Value
$8.41
PnL
-$0.15
Record
23%
510-1692 (2202)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.93
PnL
+$0.53
Record
39%
1043-1627 (2670)
Invested
$0.44
Value
$0.59
PnL
+$0.15
Record
85%
62-11 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.