Will John Barrasso be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $389 held · ends Jan 3, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$388.93
$0.11
99.5¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.5¢ | $264.43 | $264.47 | +$0.04 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $39.72 | $39.8 | +$0.08 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.85 | $29.9 | +$0.05 | 4% 17-366 (383) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.9 | $29.85 | -$0.05 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $24.93 | $24.91 | -$0.01 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
LucerysInvested
$264.43
Value
$264.47
PnL
+$0.04
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.72
Value
$39.8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$29.85
Value
$29.9
PnL
+$0.05
Record
4%
17-366 (383)
Invested
$29.9
Value
$29.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$24.93
Value
$24.91
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.