Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Joe Pyfer be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.39

Combined PnL

-$132.51

Smart Money Entry

5.1¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.39

Total Shares2,782

Combined PnL-$132.51

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

175h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$50.05	$0.65	-$67.41	45% 16737-20424 (37161)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$23.93	$0.27	-$23.66	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$17.57	$0.17	-$17.41	38% 2901-4738 (7639)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0	$0.07	+$0.07	36% 9048-16196 (25244)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$6.23	$0.06	-$6.17	32% 8615-18480 (27095)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$4.58	$0.04	-$4.54	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$4.5	$0.04	-$4.46	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$4.41	$0.04	-$4.37	35% 1183-2186 (3369)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$2.11	$0.02	-$2.09	44% 167-213 (380)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$1.32	$0.01	-$1.3	17% 246-1180 (1426)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$1.19	34% 3946-7627 (11573)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.05

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$67.41

Record

45%

16737-20424 (37161)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.93

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$23.66

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.57

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$17.41

Record

38%

2901-4738 (7639)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

36%

9048-16196 (25244)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.23

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$6.17

Record

32%

8615-18480 (27095)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.58

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.54

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.46

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.41

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.37

Record

35%

1183-2186 (3369)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.11

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.09

Record

44%

167-213 (380)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.32

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.3

Record

17%

246-1180 (1426)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.19

Record

34%

3946-7627 (11573)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

175h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.