Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.2K
$161.08
87.5¢ → 85.4¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
324h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 89.8¢ | $872 | $484.39 | -$17.57 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
 probability | Noavg 84.4¢ | $633.39 | $407.52 | +$102.94 | 43% 1334-1796 (3130) |
 UbuntuTrading | Noavg 88.8¢ | $163.8 | $167.6 | +$3.8 | 57% 3031-2261 (5292) |
 NooseracCTR | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $73.32 | $107.96 | +$34.65 | 52% 5657-5205 (10862) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $20.7 | $59.2 | +$37.26 | 44% 1234-1548 (2782) |
Invested
$872
Value
$484.39
PnL
-$17.57
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
probabilityInvested
$633.39
Value
$407.52
PnL
+$102.94
Record
43%
1334-1796 (3130)
UbuntuTradingInvested
$163.8
Value
$167.6
PnL
+$3.8
Record
57%
3031-2261 (5292)
NooseracCTRInvested
$73.32
Value
$107.96
PnL
+$34.65
Record
52%
5657-5205 (10862)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$59.2
PnL
+$37.26
Record
44%
1234-1548 (2782)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.