Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jesse Eisenberg win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$2.49
-$6
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $2.28 | $0.75 | -$1.54 | 38% 58-96 (154) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $49.84 | $0.55 | -$2.26 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.19 | $0.39 | -$0.8 | 47% 4794-5409 (10203) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.24 | $0.24 | +$0 | 29% 888-2164 (3052) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.73 | $0.24 | -$0.49 | 39% 1060-1643 (2703) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $13.19 | $0.18 | -$0.66 | 7% 2-28 (30) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.37 | $0.12 | -$0.25 | 30% 2929-6852 (9781) |
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$1.54
Record
38%
58-96 (154)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$49.84
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$2.26
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$0.8
Record
47%
4794-5409 (10203)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.24
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
888-2164 (3052)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$0.49
Record
39%
1060-1643 (2703)
Invested
$13.19
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$0.66
Record
7%
2-28 (30)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$0.25
Record
30%
2929-6852 (9781)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.